This FT piece says maybe, even though exports (the main driver of Chinese economic growth) are still shrinking. The key boost is in the mortgage market, which doesn't seem super-sustainable. From what I can make out, the Chinese authorities are simply lending aggressively to prevent a real estate bubble from deflating entirely:
The fall in the real-estate market has also shown some indications of having bottomed out, with a strong rebound in property transaction volumes and the first slight rise in month-on-month prices since last July. ...
Cao Jianhai, a senior government analyst, told the FT he expects urban property prices to fall as much as 40 to 50 per cent across the country in the next two years as a result of huge oversupply and a serious disconnection between prices and income levels. ...
He said positive signs in the property sector were being partly driven by a surge in bank lending, which grew a record Rmb1,890bn in March, bringing the total for the first quarter to Rmb4,580bn – more than the entire amount of new loans extended last year and nearing the government’s full-year target of at least Rmb5,000bn in 2009.
Also, there are some signs Chinese consumers are beginning to pick up the slack a bit, though the days when China won't have to depend on American consumers living way beyond our means as we vaccuum up their exports still seem far off:
Within China, sales of passenger vehicles in March rose 10 per cent from a year earlier, and 27 per cent from February, to 772,400, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a sign that consumer demand remains robust.
I guess this is not exactly going to help us cut those carbon emissions either...
--Noam Scheiber