In opposition to the House, where essentially every representative in a
swing district voted against the bailout bill (the exceptions were
mostly in wealthy, investor-class districts), many senators in tough
races were willing put their backing behind the measure.
Among those senators in races that might even vaguely be considered competitive (all the races on Swing State Project's
list, including their snowball's-chance-in-hell category called "races
to watch"), the only to oppose the measure were four Southern fiscal
conservatives -- Liddy Dole, Roger Wicker, James Inhofe, and Democrat
Mary Landrieu -- all of whom might well have opposed the bill even if
they were running against Mickey Mouse. But Ted Stevens, John Sununu,
Gordon Smith, Norm Coleman, Mitch McConnell et. al. all voted for the measure, and with an exception or two like McConnell, few had institutional imperatives to do so.
So what does this tell us?
a.
Sens. Obama and McCain, who both voted for the measure, wield far more
influence than any other politicians in America, including the
President and the House leadership;
b. The "sweeteners" in the bill worked well enough for all sides;
c. The Senate and House have different institutional philosophies;
d. The Dow's performance over the past 72 hours scared them, and/or their constituents, into supporting the bill;
e. All of the above.
The complete tally follows.
AK Stevens AYE
GA Chambliss AYE
KY McConnell AYE
ME Collins AYE
MN Coleman AYE
MS WICKER NAY
NH Sununu AYE
NC DOLE NAY
OK INHOFE NAY
OR Smith AYE
SC Graham AYE
TX Cornyn AYE
Republicans -- Competitive Races: 9 Aye, 3 Nay (75%)
Republicans -- Safe: 25 Aye, 12 Nay (68%)
LA LANDRIEU NAY
NJ Lautenberg AYE
Democrats -- Competitive Races: 1 Aye, 1 Nay (50%)
Democrats -- Safe: 40 Aye, 8 Nay, 1 N/V (83%)
{Independents -- Safe: 1 Aye, 1 Nay}
Total Competitive: 10 Aye, 4 Nay (71%)
Total Noncompetitive: 64 Aye, 21 Nay, 1 N/V
--Nate Silver