There's just one state poll out today. In Oklahoma, the latest Sooner Poll
from the Tulsa World and KOTV has John McCain leading Barack Obama by
32 points, 56-24. This poll had last been in the field in late January,
then showing McCain with a 28-point lead. There's not much that can be
gathered from an Oklahoma poll, which might compete with Utah for the title of the reddest state in the country. But this may auger poorly for any
chance Obama might have to close the gap in states like Kansas,
Arkansas, and Texas.
Meanwhile, we have two more days' worth of
national tracking poll results to look at, and they continue to show a
nearly-tied race, as both Gallup and Rasmussen
have Barack Obama ahead by just a single percentage point. Obama's win
percentage has ticked downward slightly as a result -- we assign him a 66.1 percent chance of winning the election as of today, as compared with 67.6
percent on Friday. But our model will need more
confirmation from other state and national polling before a larger
correction takes place.
--Nate Silver