When my friend Geoff and I went to debate camp together (yes, there is
something even dorkier than writing about polls), Geoff had a
screensaver with an obnoxious lime green background and that pronounced
in some very tacky, Windows 3.0 kind of font: "SLEEP IS THE ENEMY". I
don't quite feel that way myself, but lately I've begun understand
where Geoff was coming from. We were so busy rolling out methodological changes over the weekend that we didn't bother to document the latest polls. So let's see what we've got on the polling front.
In Arkansas,
Rasmussen has Barack Obama closing to within 9 points. While this is
hardly a fantastic result for a Democrat in Arkansas, it does represent
an enormous improvement from Obama's prior polling in the state, which
had shown him down by as many as 29 points. This result is easier to
understand in light of our analysis of Obama's bounce,
which seems to be concentrated in states with strong Democratic party
identification but relatively few African-Americans -- Clinton country,
in other words. Can Obama actually close Arkansas to the point where it
becomes competitive? If Hillary Clinton is his VP choice -- Clinton
still gets much more of a home-state effect in Arkansas than her
adopted home of New York -- the state is probably in play. Otherwise,
it probably isn't, although if the Clintons are particularly vigorous
in their campaigning, it might get teasingly close.
In Oregon, Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 8.
This poll has been cited by some McCain supporters a a sign that
Obama's bounce is waning, since Rasmussen's last poll had him up 14 there. However, that May poll had been taken right as Obama had begun
to campaign toward that state's primary; Rasmussen's March poll had
shown him up by 6. No matter how you interpret the trend, Oregon looks pretty safe for
Obama, but given Clinton's paucity of support in the state, there was
perhaps less room for Obama to gain further ground there.
The New York Times
has decided to poll the Empire State, which shows Obama leading John
McCain 51-32. Although this is the Times' first poll in New York this
year, Obama's 19-point margin as large as in any New York poll
conducted this year. So once again, the same pattern: big Clinton
state, bigger bounce.
Finally, in Nevada, a Mason-Dixon
poll shows John McCain ahead by 2 points, 44-42. Mason-Dixon had last
polled Nevada way back in December, at which point McCain led by 6.
Although you have to go back to March to find a survey where Obama led
in Nevada (the state is notoriously hard to poll and hasn't been polled
much), the state's demographics should be relatively friendly to him,
and he should theoretically be on the right side of the Yucca Mountain
issue. With that said, in most of the scenarios* where Obama wins by
way of the Southwestern swing states, he only needs two out of three to
win, so Colorado and New Mexico may remain his first targets.
--Nate Silver
*
For example, Kerry states + Iowa + Colorado + New Mexico is a winning
combination; if he wins those states but loses New Hampshire, the
election ends in a 269-269 tie that would probably be resolved in
Obama's favor in the House.