Noam has written his analysis of the big New York Times front page poll on Iowa and New Hamphsire, but the final paragraph in the Times' own analysis caught my eye:
On the Republican side, the poll suggests that Mr. Giuliani’s rivals might not have as easy a time as they once thought in derailing his candidacy by attacking him for his stand on social issues. A majority of Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire said they were aware that Mr. Giuliani supported abortion rights, suggesting that they had already incorporated that fact into their voting calculations.
This seems completely wrong. Remember, the poll itself has just told us that Giuliani is losing to Romney by 18 points (!!) in New Hampshire, a state where the former mayor was supposed to be competitive. And in Iowa he trails not only Romney, but also the socially conservative Huckabee. It appears as if the places where people are paying attention (Iowa and New Hampshire) have in fact decided that Rudy is too socially liberal. Were Rudy to lose by 18 points in New Hampshire, his candidacy would be in serious, serious trouble.
--Isaac Chotiner