Marc Ambinder is right: I can imagine a lot of things crazier than an anti-war libertarian, who's now sitting on a fresh pile of cash, breaking into the top three in New Hampshire. Ron Paul is going to make that primary very interesting. Here's my thinking: It now looks like Romney, Giuliani, and McCain all have to do well in New Hampshire. McCain has to win to stay viable; Romney sort of has to win, but could probably fight on (at least to Michigan) if he finishes a respectable second; and Rudy needs a solid second. Paul seems like he could affect the race in two ways. First, he could siphon off independents from McCain and Giuliani, both of whom are courting them. (Though Paul and McCain/Giuliani appeal to independents in different ways: McCain/Giuliani appeal to them through their economic conservatism and their moderation on issues other than the war; Paul through his economic conservatism and his anti-war stance. We may be talking about somewhat different groups here, both of which fall into the category of "independent.") Second, if Paul somehow finished second and dropped either Romney or Giuliani to third, the rest of the campaign could be a very tough slog for that third-place finisher. (Though probably more so for Romney than Giuliani, who could still fare well in a lot of places on February 5.) Update: Of course, as Brendan Nyhan points out, Paul still has that nuttiness thing to overcome. People with reputations for being nutty often sound surprisingly sane when you hear them in person. Not Paul. The one time I saw him give a speech--this summer in Ames--he seemed much, much loonier than I'd imagined. Lots of ranting about abolishing the Federal Reserve, etc. He just struck me as a crazy old man. --Noam Scheiber