Nope. No way. If Trump and Clinton are the nominees, then Clinton wins in a historic landslide, a la LBJ in 1964.
Except ... perhaps it would be really stupid, after all that’s happened, to write him off.
Pundits who said @realDonaldTrump would never get the nomination still saying he's unelectable in a general. Time to question assumptions?
— Karen Tumulty (@ktumulty) February 24, 2016
I think Democrats underestimate Trump’s ability to win a general election in the same way Republicans have in the primary. Just saying.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 24, 2016
According to RCP’s average of polls, Clinton enjoys only a slim lead over Trump in a head-to-head match-up. You have to think that her lead will climb once the Democratic Party revs up the Trump attack machine, which the GOP has so far mysteriously declined to use.
But at the same time, in a polarized, nearly evenly divided electorate, there’s only so much the Democratic Party can do to expand its coalition. It’s unlikely that the editors of National Review and other anti-Trumpists will flock to Clinton. The real question is whether Trump can consolidate the GOP and perhaps even make inroads with blue-collar workers who have traditionally voted Democratic. As Noam Scheiber reported, even labor unions are interested in Trump, given his idiosyncratic position on trade.
So, maybe?